The cultural Iron Curtain dividing the European Union (EU) between an secular, post-national and progressive west, and a re-Christianising, nationalist and traditionalist east is becoming more entrenched. Late last Friday, the European Commission decided to sue Hungary over what it sees as an anti-LGBT law as well as Budapest’s refusal to renew the license of government-critical <em>Klubrádió</em>. Similarly, Poland has been subject to fines of up to €1 million per day over rule of law matters. Part of a long-running dispute between Brussels and central and eastern Europe, in what the latter sees as a thinly-veiled attempt to impose liberal values on the region. Both Hungary and Poland are still in a dispute with Brussels over conditions to release EU funds.
In response to the latest move, Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga said the <em>Klubrádió</em> case did not undercut media freedom or plurality, while the Commission’s lawsuit over the LGBT law was “baseless” since “EU membership does not affect Hungary's right in any way to make decisions of its own about child protection and in accordance with its national identity”. Hungary has banned the use of materials seen as promoting LGBT issues and gender change in schools.
The Commission also began legal action against Hungary for discriminatory fuel pricing against vehicles with foreign licence plates. The use of lawfare against Hungary and Poland is nothing new but points to an ongoing values clash which not only has implications for the longevity of the EU but for the likelihood of any widening of the bloc to encompass the equally conservative and nationalist Ukraine, a country whose EU membership is far more widely supported in the Catholic-heavy and majority-Slavic eastern half of the EU than in the post-Christian west. Should Ukraine join the EU the country would have 9 per cent of the bloc’s voting powers due to population size.
At the same time, Central and eastern European states are paying close attention to what many see as an attempt to bring historically Catholic and conservative Slovenia into the western camp. Since the ousting of Janez Janša – a major ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán - as Slovenian Prime Minister earlier this year, Slovenia has made noises likely to please the European Commission. For starters, Slovenia has begun removing a wire fence on its border with Croatia to curb migrant crossings. This could likely prove very unpopular within the country. Meanwhile, a major court in Slovenia has ruled that bans on same-sex couples getting married and adopting children are unconstitutional, and has ordered Parliament to amend the law within six months. This too could prove controversial: in 2015, a referendum on a bill to legalise same-sex marriage was roundly defeated.
If anything, recent moves in Slovenia could energise Hungary and Poland even more, with the EU having recently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-tells-hungary-poland-step-up-their-democracy-game-2022-07-13/">told Hungary and Poland</a> to improve judicial and media independence, as well as anti-corruption measures, as part of conditions to unlock billions in aid. According to Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, “this is not about the rule of law”. He said: “It is about power, it is about overthrowing a government that has a democratic mandate”. At the time, Judit Varga called the report “the usual crossfire”. Both countries remain subject to the EU’s Article 7 proceedings which could lead to a suspension of voting rights, meanwhile. The risk now is that only a partition of the EU into two separate political blocs will resolve matters.
To EU observers it is increasingly clear that neither side is going to give ground. For Hungary and Poland – but especially Poland – their faith is bound up with national identity, freedom and democracy.
Soon after coming to power, Viktor Orbán oversaw a new constitution which explicitly refers to God and Christianity; funded Catholic schools, and has since banned content deemed to promote LGBT issues to minors, none of which endeared him to Brussels. But it proved popular in Hungary. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2018/10/29/eastern-and-western-europeans-differ-on-importance-of-religion-views-of-minorities-and-key-social-issues/">differences</a> between western Europe and central and eastern Europe have now been laid bare. Will the Church see in central and eastern Europe a traditionalist ally in a world of declining faith, or will it see western Europe as a more natural ally in an attempt to ingratiate itself with a more liberal audience? At some point, a decision will have to be made. Either way, faith or lack thereof is dividing Europe – it seems there is little way back now.
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