Almost one in four Irish Gen Z women could reach the age of 45 without having children if current trends continue, according to a new paper from the Iona Institute.
The report, Choice or Circumstance? Rising Childlessness in Ireland, examines childlessness among Irish women across successive generations, beginning with women born in the late 1950s. It defines childlessness as having had no children by the age of 45, the point at which fertility is biologically concluded for the overwhelming majority of women.
The paper finds that 13.5 per cent of women born in the late 1950s were childless at 45. By contrast, it forecasts that 24.2 per cent of women born in the late 1990s could be childless at the same age if present trends continue.
The report says the Irish data cannot distinguish between voluntary and involuntary childlessness. It says voluntary childlessness is a “valid personal choice”, while involuntary childlessness is often a source of “significant personal distress”.
The Iona Institute said a central question was whether rising childlessness among younger generations would be the result of choice or circumstance, including the cost of living, delayed marriage, housing pressures, career prioritisation and changing cultural norms.
The report points to a sharp increase in the proportion of women who remain childless at 30. Among women born in the late 1950s, 30.9 per cent were childless at 30. Among those born in the early 1990s, the figure had risen to 63.6 per cent.
It adds that Gen Z women born in the late 1990s had a childlessness rate of 86.7 per cent at 25, compared with 58.5 per cent among the earliest Boomer cohort at the same age.
The paper uses the Brass Relational Model, a demographic forecasting method, to project childlessness for cohorts that have not yet completed their reproductive years. It stresses that the projections show where current trends lead, rather than a fixed destiny.
The report also says Ireland’s total fertility rate fell from 3.2 in 1980 to 1.9 in 2000, and reached 1.5 in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1. It argues that rising childlessness will have long-term implications for an ageing population, public finances, pensions, healthcare and long-term care provision.
According to the Iona Institute, an Amarach Research poll it commissioned in 2022 found that 85 per cent of people wanted at least two children, while only two per cent expressed a wish to have no children.
Breda O’Brien, a spokeswoman for the Iona Institute, said: “Once upon a time, we used to worry about people having more children than they planned, but now we need to start worrying much more about them having fewer than they wish for, and in many cases, having none at all, and consider the amount of pain and distress this will cause.”
She said that people having fewer children than they planned, or none at all, was “a personal tragedy” in many cases, as well as a matter with “very significant social and economic consequences because of the effects of an ageing population and growing loneliness”.
“As a society, we need to debate why this is happening,” she said. “Is it purely a result of the high cost of living, or is it also because young people are today often encouraged to put off starting a family until they are well into their 30s, by which time it might be too late?
“One way or the other, it is a phenomenon we should discuss far more widely if our aim is to help people to achieve their eventual life goals.”
The report concludes that if one in four women never has children, the fertility rate among women who do become mothers would need to rise significantly in order to maintain the overall fertility rate at replacement level. It says such conditions do not appear likely, pointing to a further fall in the overall fertility rate if present trends continue.
The Iona Institute is a Christian advocacy and research body based in Dublin.
