Let’s start with the good news. In 2019, the Catholic Church is likely to grow by around 15 million souls, taking the total number of Catholics past the 1.3 billion mark – the highest figure in history. If last year’s trends continue, the Church will expand on all inhabited continents, except Europe. Most of the new Catholics will be in Africa and the Americas, but two million or so will be in Asia. The number of diocesan priests will increase modestly everywhere apart from Europe. There will be more permanent deacons on every continent. Women’s religious orders will attract more members in Africa and Asia. The total number of lay missionaries will increase, especially in the Americas. From kindergartens to universities, the Church will help to educate some 68 million youngsters worldwide this year. It will care for millions of other people at more than 3,000 rehabilitation centres, 5,000 hospitals, 15,000 elderly care homes and almost 10,000 orphanages. It is important to keep this in mind as we consider the formidable challenges facing the Church in 2019. As Benedict XVI put it at his inaugural Mass in 2005, “the Church is alive. And the Church is young.” Those of us who live in countries where Catholics are a minority need to remember that the Church is vast and it is, on the whole, thriving. So, to the bad news: 2019 is likely be dominated by the abuse crisis. The world’s attention will be focused on the unprecedented gathering of bishops’ conference presidents in Rome on February 21-24. Pope Francis called the summit in response to new paedophile priest scandals in the United States, but also in Chile and almost every other country where the Church has a significant presence. The Vatican dramatically heightened expectations when it asked the US bishops to delay measures to tackle abuse until after the Rome meeting. Many hope that the Vatican will impose stringent global child-protection norms and unveil a clear mechanism for holding to account bishops who mishandle abuse cases. The trouble is that the summit may prove to be little more than a glorified workshop. As they are meeting for just three days, the bishops will have little time to reach a consensus. Vatican media are nevertheless likely to hail the meeting as a major turning point, especially if the summit endorses the so-called “metropolitan model” for disciplining bishops. Secular media, however, are unlikely to applaud when they realise that this model involves bishops investigating other bishops, with only a token role for laity. Hamstrung by Rome, the US bishops may be unable to take the drastic steps they need to quell the crisis. There will be more horrific grand jury reports, more raids on diocesan chanceries, more dioceses declaring bankruptcy and more episcopal resignations. Lay people will leave less money on the collection plate, forcing dioceses to cut services, including to the poorest.