I have written that Donald Trump won the election through his performance in the Midwest. Before November 8, Trump's team knew that winning Florida would not be enough: turning a blue state, particularly Michigan or Pennsylvania, was essential to his victory. He ended up winning both — along with Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. In fact, at his current Electoral College vote count, he could have lost Florida and still won the election. The data give us a clearer idea of how this happened.
In the northeast and midwest, Trump won because he performed well in important counties that Mitt Romney, the previous Republican presidential nominee, had lost. Republicans turned out for Trump in the suburbs and rural towns of these states, creating long lines at many of the polls. Together with a poor Democratic turnout for Hillary Clinton and help from many Democratic cross-over voters in these areas, Trump achieved his upset victory.
