ROME – Whenever popes begin to age or fall sick, two developments are as inevitable as the rising and the setting of the sun. First, some people will begin to speculate about the next pontiff; secondly, other people will get their noses out of joint about it.

In part, the umbrage reflects a pious sense that there’s something inappropriate, or unseemly, about discussing the next pope while the current one is still alive. It doesn’t help that the most fervid speculation generally comes from ideological opponents of the incumbent, so that in the St John Paul II and Benedict XVI years it circulated more on the Catholic left, while today it’s more prevalent on the right.