ROME – Back in 1980, William Casey, then the campaign manager for candidate Ronald Reagan, coined the phrase “October surprise” to refer to the possibility that incumbent President Jimmy Carter might try to do something dramatic, such as freeing the American hostages in Iran, to boost his prospects ahead of the November elections.

In the end it never happened, and Reagan cruised to victory. Ever since, however, the term “October surprise” has endured in American politics as a metaphor for trying to change the political landscape with some sort of bombshell at the last minute.